To follow-up on my CRE post over the weekend, I had a number of people dm me asking what my positions were or how I arrive at candidates. Well, looking over this graphic, I wasn't surprised to see A class properties already in default and/or in "Special servicing" - which is "yeah, they are a problem but we don't want to put them into default category." What's interesting to me is the last column - many of these are a large number of buildings, not just one or two. A bit harder to rent say 14 buildings to get a loan performing again than 1 building. Plus, they were CMBS - before any 2023 haircuts.

Blackstone ($BX):

• Revenues in 2021 were $22.57billion and dropped to $8.5 billion in 2022. OUCH
• Worse, net interest income dropped from $461 million to NEGATIVE $105 million.
• Long term debt rose from $7.7 billion in 2021 to $12.3 billion in 2022 - I think BX is trying to borrow to buy itself time.
• BX does have access to about $187 billion in credit to bring to bear so its not like they will go out of business. think of them as one of the Too Big To Fail CRE firms.
• BX runs an internal non traded $71 billion REIT - which they have halted withdrawals for 4 months and counting.
• Operating income dropped from $13 billion in 2021 to $4.9 billion in 2022.
• But the big data point for me is that over the last 6 months, BX insiders sold 97.83% of BX stock. Now, a lot of this selling was from various BX limited partnerships which companies like BX use to hide the salami but still, that is a crap ton of selling.
• BX has a current PE of 35 and a forward PE of 13ish while the industry has a PE of 9
• BX has a PEG ratio (PE plus what earnings are expected to grow at) of 3.43 while the industry average is .73
• By these two metrics, BX is priced at a premium, probably due to the fact that they have some very smart people working for them. But smart people cannot overcome negative momentum when it starts to affect things they cannot control.
• Finally, while they do have a nice 5% div, their payout ratio is 208%.
• So, falling revenues, falling asset performance, falling asset values, negative dividend coverage, insiders dumping. Not a good picture.

I do not think in anyway that BX is going out of business. I do believe their recent defaults of $1 billion in CMBS, not straight mortgages, are just the tip of the iceberg. The question is, how deep does it go?

For me, I believe that the CRE market dive is only starting. If a rising tide raises all ships, the opposite occurs with a falling tide.

One last note: BX earnings and revenue drops were BEFORE the last 2 months when CRE started feeling pain. Just when they were recovering from Covid, Yellen's incompetence created a huge (imo) outlier risk.

BX reports earnings soon so a surprise to the upside or the Fed announcing a cut could screw up my thesis but I think that BX will fall to $70 with a possibility for a flush to $60 my real target. Thats -13 and -23 from the current price.

So, I am looking at SEPT 60-70 puts, haven't decided yet. Projected return if BX falls to $60 would be 200%ish. MY stop will be right above this months high, $92.50. If that happens I will lose 60% on the premium. So Reward to risk is 3.3X, not great but not bad (I usually look for 10X option plays on 20% moves) if BX falls to $60 by July 1.

DISCLAIMER: You are a grown ass person so if you decide this is a trade you like, it's on you. I am not telling or recommending this to anyone. And I am prepared to manage the position on spikes or dumps if need be - this is not to me a set and forget.

TLDR: BX is very over valued by traditional metrics, insiders have sold 97% of their stock, and I am taking a shot.

Thanks and I welcome intelligent comments. Stupid comments not so much.

Since the FED started raising rates, Powell has been talking about "Soft Landing" over and over again. In the latest FED meeting he was asked about a soft landing, it looks to me that he is very worried about it and soft landing may not be achieved anymore.

https://reddit.com/link/123a0rc/video/dui9fe8hb7qa1/player

First, SQQQ has a 90% margin requirement, but this increases as the position moves against you, this means you will literally be margin called if SQQQ even moves up 5%. Here's what will happen: SQQQ goes from -100 to -105, you now have 100-5=95 cash. But SQQQ's maintenance margin becomes 0.9*105=94.5, creating an imminent margin call.

Second, LETFs don't have "volatility decay," they have a path-dependent skew. This skew could be to the upside depending on volatility and magnitude of direction. If QQQ moves down quickly, SQQQ will actually be skewed to the upside because there is only 1 downside direction and no upside volatility. This creates a positive skew where SQQQ will move more than -3x QQQ. Real-world backtests of SQQQ result in -4x or more the total benchmark movement, that means if QQQ went down -25%, SQQQ will actually go up 100% or even more. The result is that even a small position of -15% SQQQ, 100% cash could result in a margin call. In 2008 for example, SQQQ if it existed would have gone up more than 4x. The -15% position would become -60% requiring probably 60% margin, however your cash would have went down to 55% and you are facing a margin call. However, there is no guarantee SQQQ couldn't go up even more than that, as the 2000 Nasdaq bubble resulted in more than 6x increase for SQQQ and unless you are liquid enough to be able to inject more cash, it is highly likely you will have to close your short position at a loss.

Is it true that AI will be able to create a token that will be controlled entirely by artificial intelligence (AI) instead of relying on traditional mining?

In fact, there are already examples of such tokens in the market. These tokens typically use alternative consensus mechanisms or distribution methods that do not require mining, such as Proof of Stake (PoS), Proof of Authority (PoA), or other energy-efficient mechanisms.

At the moment, the projects that have made the most progress in this (not advertising it's just a couple of examples):

1. https://thegraph.com/en/
2. https://cryptogpt.org/ (by the way, right now you can get 200 tokens extracted for free with the help of AI. This is already equal to $17.)
3. https://singularitynet.io/

These projects, like many others, appeared relatively recently. But for a short time of their existence, their cost has noticeably tightened. I'm not completely sure what this is related to. Maybe it's just a hype in this area or artificial intelligence really works.

In any case, I think it's worth spending a couple of dollars and buying tokens in this area now for a couple of dollars. Perhaps it will become a competitor of bitcoin in the distant or not distant future. It is very interesting to hear your opinion, what do you think about it?

Speaking at the China Development Forum 2023, Rae Dalio, founder, chief investment officer mentor and board member of Bridgewater, said the monetization of huge debts, the huge internal conflicts caused by the divide between wealth and values, and the conflict between international powers are three factors that "are driving all the current situations.

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According to Dalio, the world is on the "edge of danger" and could face three "seismic" changes, "if they happen, we could witness something we have not seen in our lifetime, but which has happened many times in history. These three forces, which began several years ago, have reached a crisis point and are driving all of the current events."

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The three dramatic changes, as Dalio calls them, are, first, the monetization of huge debts, where central banks print money and issue currency to buy these debts, second, the huge internal conflict caused by the divide in wealth and values, and third, the conflict between international powers. According to Dalio, all three of these factors are now emerging to the greatest extent since 1930-1945.

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Dalio believes that many indicators such as real per capita income, per capita life expectancy, and nutritional levels will improve significantly in the long run due to increases in productivity and especially technology. The evolution of this upward trend is characterized by huge cyclical fluctuations, which consist of short cycles that interact with each other to form large cycles. These large cycles are the so-called "good years" and "bad years." In addition, the events that lead to such large cycles do not occur according to a timeline, but are determined by causality, so that their occurrence is not predetermined, but manageable.

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Dalio further emphasizes that many times, the accumulation of many short cycles to form large long cycles leads to debt write-downs and monetization of huge amounts of debt when debt ratios rise and liabilities become too large to sustain. At the same time, along with financial and economic cycles, there are political cycles within countries, and geopolitical cycles between countries, and history shows that when these three forces are superimposed simultaneously, they lead to turbulent transitions, often resulting in dramatic changes in the domestic and world order of great magnitude.

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Dalio points out that since 1945 - since the establishment of the last new world order, the monetary order, which can also be called the world order of the United States and the dollar - it has gone through 12.5 short cycles until now, accumulating to form a big debt cycle, which is now quite high as a percentage of GDP, when Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, then began to tighten monetary policy to deal with inflation, causing cracks to begin to occur in the market, and the economy began to weaken.

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According to Dalio, we are now entering a big international geopolitical cycle. "What I hope is that there will be wisdom, restraint and understanding in the world and that the world will continue to be peaceful and prosperous."

We all know that the stock market is subject to seasonal effects, with certain times of the year, month, or even week causing share prices to rise or fall. But did you know that silver can act like a seasonal superhero swooping in to save the day? And today, on this lovely March 26, 2023, we're going to dive deep into the bullish case for silver in the current market conditions.

Silver has always played second fiddle to its more glamorous sibling, gold. But don't let that fool you! This precious metal has a lot more going for it than just being a shiny object for werewolf hunters and fancy dining utensils.

For starters, silver has excellent industrial demand. It's an essential component in various industries, such as electronics, solar panels, batteries, and even medical applications. As we continue to transition to a greener world, the demand for silver in solar energy and electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to skyrocket. So, while gold might be the bling in your ring, silver is the spark in your solar panel!

Now, let's talk about inflation. With governments around the world printing money like it's going out of fashion, the value of fiat currencies is dwindling. Enter silver, the shiny hedge against inflation! As inflation rises, so does the appeal of silver as a store of value. It's like having your own personal superhero to fight the evil villain "Inflation" - and who wouldn't want that?

Moreover, silver has a history of outperforming gold during precious metal bull markets. It's like the tortoise that eventually outraces the hare. You see, silver is so much more affordable than gold that it becomes the go-to choice for investors when the precious metals market heats up. And when silver starts to outshine gold, it's like the disco ball at a 70s-themed party - you just can't help but be mesmerized by it!

But wait, there's more! Silver also benefits from the phenomenon of seasonality in the stock market. With summer around the corner, it's the perfect time for our shiny friend to take center stage. You see, during summer, many traders are off enjoying their vacations, which often leads to less trading activity and increased volatility. And we all know what happens when silver gets a little volatile - it starts to party like it's 1999!

In addition to its seasonal charm, silver has a strong historical track record of holding its value during economic downturns. It's like having a financial lifeboat in stormy seas. So, as we navigate the uncertain waters of the current market, it's nice to have a little silver lining to cling to.

Now, let's not forget the role that market sentiment plays in the investment world. The fear of missing out (FOMO) is a powerful driving force, especially when it comes to investing in precious metals. As silver begins to gain traction and investors start to see the potential upside, FOMO will kick in, causing a buying frenzy that could propel silver prices even higher. And there's nothing quite like a good old-fashioned FOMO party to get the market buzzing!

What to do?

Currently home prices in The Netherlands are (slowly) decreasing.

There is still a housing problem, because of shortage, but the mix of higher interest rates and insecurities, makes the prices slightly go down. Right now, the house is approx worth 825k, a year ago this was probably around 875k.

Big renovation is needed in the near future, so rent income is relatively low -return of investment around 3,5%

In our opinion we have 2 options. We sell now, and take the risk of keeping this amount of money on the bank. In case of a collapse we only have 100k insured. Or we keep the house and wait for prices to possibly drop further.

What would you do?

So there is a lot going on, multiple crisis which are driving various pressures in the market, ofc we can talk about the different crisis effecting the global market and other such things. But it does leave us with one question why?

Well here I am to tell you. It's simple it's eggon. Why is it eggon you may ask? Because EGGON is Lord Prophet God of fortune. For he decides the fate of all, for when he foresees, he determines. By this power he divines our path to fortune. HE IS THE OUR LORD, LORD OF WSB. PROPHET OF THE TWO POSSIBILITIES. HE IS OUR GOD OF FORTUNE. We must honour him. Post every loss porn, a sacrifice of blood to his name. Post every success provided by our lord for any other is fleeting mercy. Honour him!

If it is revealed he is false then we sate the hungry

(Ok enough of this, but can the bloody chicken be wrong I'm hungry man can't gamble and eat. But yea you will all have noticed haven't been on the sub uber long, mainly lurked til recently now joining in on the insanity)

Surely this must mean something https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/carnival-ccl-receives-a-buy-from-stifel-nicolaus-1032184064, Carnival look to be on its way to recovery and I believe the stock is undervalued and at a discount and the earnings report coming today, what do y'all think?

Would TTWO skyrocket after the release of GTA 6? If so would be a good idea to buy a LEAP option that have a long expiration date. I have been doing my research and people are expecting release date for 2024. So it would be a good idea to buy a LEAP that expire in 2025. What do you all think is a bad idea right?

*This past week I did in fact open a position with FRC*

I always try to keep a well-balanced portfolio, not all loaded into one industry or entity. But FRC has peaked my interest enough I have been willing to make an exception. Greater than 10% of my portfolio is now FRC. At the current price range these past few days of 12s - 15s I see hints at accumulation by 1000s of accounts and the potential for positive news to really have an effect on the price.

Compared to some of their regional counterparts they tend to have a long standing highly regarded brand, that's key as with so many options out there you do want to align with brands you can respect. They were unfairly beaten down, a real guilty until proven innocent approach by investors.

The last 24 hours has brought at least some insight into this FRC stock, it has life, its being talked about at the highest levels.

Swiss Finance Minister says Credit Suisse's bankruptcy could have led to a global financial crisis without the intervention of the Swiss government.

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Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter said the Swiss government was forced to intervene to save Credit Suisse because the troubled bank "couldn't last a day" amid a crisis of investor confidence, according to media reports on Saturday, local time.

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In a media interview, Keller-Sutter said:

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Credit Suisse may not last until Monday. Without a solution, Swiss payment transactions with Credit Suisse will be severely disrupted and may even collapse.

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She cited expert estimates that the impact of a "disorderly bankruptcy" of Credit Suisse could reach twice the output of the Swiss economy. More broadly, "we should expect a global financial crisis" because the collapse of Credit Suisse would send other banks into the abyss.

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Last weekend, UBS's deal to buy Credit Suisse, coordinated by the Swiss government, was widely criticized for trampling on the rights of bond investors and putting a heavy burden on Swiss taxpayers in the event of a crisis. But Keller-Sutter believes the alternatives would have been worse.

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She told the press:

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All other options are more risky for the country. A temporary nationalization of Credit Suisse could last much longer than the government would like, as experience has also shown that it can take years or even decades for the state to exit ownership of a bank.

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The possibility of an orderly closure is also ruled out because not only would the losses be considerable, but Switzerland would be the first country to close a bank that is important to the global system. Now is clearly not the time for experimentation.

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Keller-Sutter also objected to equating the Swiss government's "collocation" with the bailout, saying that no government funds were flowing to the banks. But she acknowledges that the deposit guarantee is similar to an insurance policy and is an indirect form of state support.

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She also dismissed claims that the U.S. pressured Switzerland to bail out Credit Suisse. She said, "It is clear to everyone, including ourselves, that a restructuring or liquidation of Credit Suisse would trigger a huge shock to international financial markets."

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Asked about the impact of the epidemic and the current crisis on Swiss finances, Keller-Sutter said the immediate priority was to improve the Swiss government's fiscal deficit. In this regard, "there is no sign of improvement until the end of this decade"

I have a lifetime ninjatrader subscription that was purchased prior to opening a brokerage account with them. Having the lifetime includes having lower commissions. I recently discovered I was not getting the lifetime rate but a higher rate. When I inquired about it they sent me this response. Is there anything I can do about this or has anyone come across this issue with NT? I opened the brokerage account in October(2022) and have been trading everyday since. I understand I should have caught this earlier but I also feel like they have a responsibility to give me back the difference in commissions since I opened the account. responsen

Aerovironment has been trading sideways since the Ukraine conflict kicked off. Their products (especially the Switchblade loitering munitions) are in heavy use by the US military, and have a superb track record with the Ukrainians. Expect to see further adoption + NATO standardization around their platforms or similar. Loitering munitions are single use, ensuring orders for years to come. Even with their healthy bump following the Ukraine invasion, I think the market is underestimating AVAV's future prospects + likelihood of acquisition by a giant defense contractor. There's meat on the bones still at $90.

Make no mistake—US and NATO militaries will not be using DJI Mavics with grenades for their small UAV / loitering munition needs. NATO will not tolerate a Chinese supply chain for their vehicles in a china-centric threat environment. They will use an American contractor. AVAV is the duh choice.

Prediction: Gradual ⬆️ over a few years with a strong possibility of acquisition by larger defense contractor. I'm way too ret🅰️rded to suggest price targets.

Move: LEAPS—as soon as they add options worth a damn to the chain. Right now, theyre only selling a few months out. Then sell dumb OTM covered calls to the people who think they're the first fucking geniuses to figure this out.

If been doing some DD on the airlines, I looks like they’re all incredibly low, however there balance sheets and bookings are incredibly, it seems as though people are still Covid scared of the airlines? Alaska (ALK) and Allegiant (ALGT) have the best balance sheets. Seems like a lot of return to be made.

6 Key economic events this week (and why each is important):

1. Consumer Confidence data (Tuesday): A higher level of consumer confidence usually indicates that consumers are more willing to spend money, which can boost economic growth. Consumer Confidence data can be a great indicator of future spending habits.

2. Home sales data (Wednesday): The housing market is a crucial part of the economy, and home sales data can give an indication of the overall health of the housing market. Home sales data is a great indicator of future economic growth.

3. Q4 2022 GDP data (Thursday): A strong GDP report can indicate that the economy is growing, which can lead to more jobs and higher wages.

4. Treasury Sec. Yellen speaks (Thursday): As the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen's statements can significantly impact financial markets. She is one of the most important economic policymakers in the world.

5. PCE inflation data (Friday): A higher-than-expected inflation rate could lead to an increase in interest rates, which can impact economic growth and financial markets. PCE inflation data is a good indicator of future interest rate changes.

6. 4 Fed speakers this week: The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Its decisions can have a big impact on the economy.